European qualifying

European qualifying gets underway in August, and is the only region that has yet to begin. The draw for groups was made a few months ago. Because the teams were drawn based on older rankings, you may notice that some groups are much more difficult than others. I would prefer to see the draw done after the European Championships and based on the new rankings. All in all there are 13 places up for grabs here, with 8 groups of 6 and 1 group of 5. The group winners all advance to the World Cup, and the 8 best second place teams are play off against each other for the remaining four places.

Group 1 – Albania, Denmark, Hungary, Malta, Portugal, and Sweden
Portugal are the favourites to advance out of this group, but anything can and does happen in qualifying. Portugal are aware of this, having qualified for the European Championships second in their group behind Poland. Portugal will be going into the qualifying with a new coach, as Scolari has left to join Chelsea. His replacement is Carlos Quiroz, former Real Madrid Manager and Manchester United Assistant. How this will affect their form, I don’t know. I do see them winning this group and qualifying for the World Cup, though. Second place in this group is wide open. Sweden, Denmark, and Hungary are all capable of grabbing it. I think that Albania will be the spoilers, getting a few results, but not enough to nab second, and Malta are along for the ride. Sweden are in a period of overhaul, as a number of players are announcing their retirement from international competition. Sweden will rely heavily on the scoring of Inter Milan Striker Zlatan Imbrahimovich. It is a difficult choice to make, but I see Denmark emerging from the fray as the second place team, with Sweden third, Hungary fourth, Albania fifth, and Malta sixth.

Group 2 – Greece, Israel, Latvia, Luxembourg, Moldova, and Switzerland
Greece are supposed to be the favourites in this group, but after their performance at the Euros, where they lost every match and were the only team not to register a point, it is difficult to count them as favourites. This group is the main reason why I think the qualifying draw should be made later - if you look at the FIFA rankings before Euro 2008, Greece are #8, but when you look at it after they are #18. While #18 isn’t bad, 6 of the 9 groups include two teams that are both better than #18! Anything could really happen in this group. Switzerland are a solid team that doesn’t score too often. They didn’t allow a goal in the last World Cup, and lost on penalties to Ukraine in the round of 16. At Euro 2008, they were unlucky to lose against Turkey, and beat the Portugal B team. The Swiss are another team going into the qualifying campaign with a new head coach. This group is a great chance for Israel to make the World Cup - they finished right behind England in the difficult Euro 2008 qualifying group that included Croatia and Russia. I think that Israel will seize the opportunity and win the group, with Greece, Moldova, and Switzerland fighting it out for second. Latvia, who qualified for Euro 2004, will be the spoilers stealing points, while Luxembourg will end up being tourists - they should enjoy the history of Greece & Israel, the mountains and valleys of Switzerland…. I think that Greece will rediscover some of the form that led them to the top of Europe in 2004 and get second place. Switzerland will be in third, Moldova in fourth, Latvia in fifth, and Luxembourg in sixth.

Group 3 – Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, San Marino, Slovakia, and Slovenia
The Czech Republic are the favourites in this group, but they are another team that, like Sweden, is going through a roster transition. Petr Rada is the new head coach for the Czechs, replacing Karel Bruckner. The Czech Republic have faltered in qualifying before, missing the World Cup in all but their last attempt, despite being ranked highly. Poland are the looking good for second place; they had some injury problems in the most recent Euros, but also the emergence of some new talent. Northern Ireland is the team that strikes fear into the hearts of opponents. David Healy, the top goal scorer of the Euro 2008 qualifying, led Northern Ireland to a dramatic victory in Belfast over Spain, the winners of Euro 2008 and the top-ranked team in the world. On their day they can beat anyone, but the question remains - how often will it be their day? Unfortunately, I see them making another dramatic push for qualification only to fall short again. Czech Republic to win, Poland to finish second, Northern Ireland in third, Slovakia in fourth, Slovenia in fifth, and San Marino in sixth.

Group 4 – Azerbaijan, Finland, Germany, Liechtenstein, Russia, and Wales
This is the first of two groups that pit Euro 2008 semi-finalists against each other. Germany go into this group as the favourite - they have a lot of young players that have performed well for them. Russia are the new kid on the block; under Guus Hiddink they have seen a significant raise in the level of their play. Russia were surprise semi-finalists at Euro 2008, upsetting the Netherlands in the quarters. They look likely to continue improving. Wales and Finland are in the same boat: they are always on the outside looking in. Wales are coming off a disappointing Euro 2008 qualifying, finishing 5th in their group, while Finland looked good finishing in a tie for third and only 3 points shy of qualifying. I think that they are both tough to qualify from this group. I believe that Russia will emerge as the team to beat and win the group, with the Germans finishing in second, Wales in third, Finland in fourth, Azerbaijan in fifth, and Liechtenstein in sixth.

Group 5 – Armenia, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Spain, and Turkey
Here is the second group featuring two of the semi-finalists from Euro 2008. Newly crowned European Champions and World #1 Spain are heavy favourites to win this group and qualify for the World Cup, though they will be doing it with a yet-to-be-named new coach after the resignation of Luis Aragones. Turkey found a way to win in the European Championships, usually in the final seconds, shocking the Czechs, Croatians, and nearly the Germans. They have kept Fatih Terim on as coach, and he should have the players ready to continue their success. This group is very much a two horse race with the other teams fighting it out for third. It is difficult to imagine Spain not winning this group… in fact I can’t do it, and thus am picking them to advance to the World Cup as group winners, with Turkey in second place. A point of interest is that former Spanish coach Aragones has taken over Turkish club side Fernerbache - I wonder if he will give his new charges some tips on beating the Spanish? Stats are not in the Spanish court either, with the European Champions always having difficulty in the following World Cup: 1992 European Champs Denmark failed to qualify in 1994; then in 2002, France, champions from 2000, failed to make it out of the group stage; Greece followed by failing to qualify in 2006. Germany managed to buck the trend in 1998, as they made it to the Quarter Finals. For Turkey, the match to watch is Turkey and Armenia, as the countries do not officially recognize each other and have no diplomatic relations. Armenia is upset that Turkey has never recognized or apologized for the genocide of Armenians. In fact, this has been a point of tension between Turkey and other countries such as the USA and France, who have made official statements about the genocide.

Group 6 – Andorra, Belarus, Croatia, England, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine
This group sees a rematch between England and Croatia. England are keen on revenge as Croatia eliminated them from the Euro 2008 qualifying at Wembley. Another interesting match up is England and Kazakhstan, this being entirely fuelled by British comedian Sacha Baron Cohen and his portrayal of a fictional Kazakh reporter named Borat. This was not well received in Kazakhstan, so I am more interested in what happens off the pitch than on it in this one. Ukraine, who attended the last World Cup, are in a tough position to make it to South Africa; for that to happen they are going to need a lot of production out of their strikers, Shevchenko and Voronin, both of whom are warming benches at Chelsea and Liverpool, respectively. Belarus are another side that are improving, but I don’t think that they have improved enough to give Croatia or England any problems. New English coach Fabio Capello has been sorting out a lot of the problems that plagued the squad under Steve McLaren, so I see England winning the group and Croatia finishing in second, with Ukraine third, Belarus fourth, Kazakhstan fifth, and Andorra sixth.

Group 7 – Austria, Faroe Islands, France, Lithuania, Romania, and Serbia
France should be the favourites in this group, which I am voting as the most boring group in World Cup Qualifying. Austria, Faroe Islands, and Lithuania shouldn’t give anyone any problems. Under the leadership of the recently not fired Raymond Domenach, France go up against ultra-defensive Romania and ultra-defensive Serbia. Domenach is well known for his belief in astrology: not picking some players for France’s disastrous Euro 2008 campaign because they had the wrong star sign, and then blaming their exit on the hotel layout. I had picked France to win the group under the leadership of the new coach, but with Domenach still in charge I am struggling to put them second. I see Romania winning the group, and France narrowly beating Serbia to finish second. I think that there is enough talent in the French players to overcome Domenach and his craziness. Also I have Austria fourth, Lithuania fifth, and Faroe Islands in sixth.

Group 8 – Bulgaria, Cyprus, Georgia, Ireland, Italy, and Montenegro
Italy are the favourites in this group, and have Marcello Lippi back at the helm. Lippi, of course, was in charge of Italy when they won the last World Cup. They face an improving Bulgarian side led by soon-to-be former Tottenham Hotspur Striker (depending on which paper you read) Dimitar Berbatov, and a strong Ireland squad led by former Tottenham Hotspur Striker Robbie Keane. I think that we can safely rule out Cyprus, Georgia, and Montenegro from contention. Italy have stumbled a bit lately, and the poor form at Euro 2008 cost coach Roberto Donadoni his job. The problem with the Azzuri is that the next wave of talent hasn’t been able to fill the gaps left by some of the departing veterans. Italy should use the qualifying period to get these players comfortable in the side. I think that this will be one of the tightest races: I have Bulgaria finishing first and Italy sneaking in at second with Ireland missing out. Georgia’s conflict with Russia has caused the cancellation of a UEFA Cup qualifying match and will likely cause some disruption to the match schedule - some of Georgia’s home matches may end up being played in neutral venues. I think that this will have the greatest impact on Georgia, whom I had in fifth, but I now have them finishing last behind Cyprus in fourth, and Montenegro in fifth.

Group 9 – Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Macedonia, and Scotland
Netherlands are the favourites in this group, especially after the way that they performed in the “group of death” at Euro 2008 - total football could be on its way back. Coach Marco van Basten has left to take the reins at Ajax of Amsterdam, and a new coach has yet to be named. Scotland are expected to offer the most resistance, having given World Cup finalists France and Italy a run for their money in Euro 2008 qualifying, but it is a wide open group - of all of the groups this one has the most parity. I see the Netherlands advancing as winners and Scotland taking second place, with Norway in third, Iceland in fourth, and Macedonia in fifth.

European Summary
Ok, I have Portugal, Israel, Czech Republic, Russia, Spain, England, France, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands qualifying for the World Cup as group winners. Denmark, Greece, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Croatia, Romania, Italy and Scotland will fight it out amongst themselves as second place teams. One of the second place teams will miss out and the other 8 will play each for a place in the World Cup. This could offer some thrilling matches - can you imagine Germany against Italy for a spot in the finals? What a shame it would be to not have both these great teams at the World Cup, but what an exciting playoff that would be!