CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying – The Road to South Africa 2010

Group 1 - I was wrong again. T & T came out and beat Cuba in Cuba which wasn't how I thought that would go down. Cuba are in big trouble and I no longer see them advancing from this group. USA has won all of their matches and are cruising in 1st place, I would say that they are a lock for the next round. The race is on between Guatemala & Trinidad & Tobago, I think that Guatemala may have the edge here, a lot depends on when Jones is available for T & T.

Group 2 - Wrong again, this is getting old. I had predicted that Canada would get some joy from their home matches, but they are sitting in third place on one point. There is technically still a chance that Canada can progress in second place, but though I really really want it to happen, I just can't see it. I think that Mexico & Honduras will advance.

Group 3 - A ha! I finally got one right Costa Rica & El Salvador find themselves in the same situation as Mexico & Honduras in group two with the 3rd & 4th place teams 5 points back of 2nd. I see them advancing without much trouble.

The Next Stage - So the amended prediction is that USA, Guatemala, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica, & El Salvador will make up the final six. I think that El Salvador are a team on a role and could cause some upsets along the way. Though it will likely be USA, Mexico, & Honduras that advance with Costa Rica in the playoff against South America.


Africa

African qualifying is already most of the way through the first stage that will narrow the field from 47 teams down to 20. The winner of each of the 12 groups along with the 8 best second place teams will advance to the next stage. So far Nigeria is the only team to secure a berth in the next round. There is some complicated math involved in this group, as Eritrea dropped out of the competition right before it started, leaving one group with only 3 teams. This means for calculating the 8 best second place teams, the points gained against the worst team in the group will not be counted. A new complication is that Ethiopia has been suspended by FIFA (football’s governing body) for failing to follow a plan to bring actions taken by the Ethiopian Football Federation (EFF) in line with FIFA regulations. At the moment it is not clear what effect this will have on qualifying.

Group 1 – Cameroon, Cape Verde, Mauritius, and Tanzania
Cameroon are the big favourite to win this group, and they appear to be on their way to doing it. They had a surprise 0-0 draw at Tanzania, but I think that will be their only slip-up in this stage. Cape Verde have been the best of the rest, beating Mauritius and Tanzania. I see them making it to the next stage as a second place team, with Tanzania third and Mauritius last.

Group 2 – Guinea, Kenya, Namibia, and Zimbabwe
Guinea are the favourites in this group. However, through 4 matches it is much closer than anyone in Guinea would like, with their team suffering a loss at Kenya and a draw with Zimbabwe. Kenya have turned Nairobi into a fortress by winning both home matches there. Their road form needs some help if they are going to progress. This was a tough one to pick - I am going with Guinea to get some results and advance as the group winners, Kenya to progress as a second place team, Zimbabwe to place third and Namibia fourth.

Group 3 – Angola, Benin, Niger, Uganda
Angola were the favourites in this group, having qualified for the last World Cup. However they currently find themselves sitting in second place behind Benin. Uganda beat Angola at home then drew with them in Angola - these performances have the Ugandans tied with Angola in second place. Niger have lost all of their matches and that doesn’t look like it will change. Benin are in the driver’s seat playing both Angola and Uganda in their last two matches, knowing if they win they are in, but if they draw both of their games, all three teams will end up tied for first place, and the team that progresses will be based off of their goal difference. Benin currently have the best goal difference at +4. However with both Angola and Uganda still to play Niger, that could change. The way I see it is that Angola will beat Benin in Benin, and Uganda will manage at least a draw with them in Kampala, meaning Angola win the group and Uganda advance as a second place team. Yet there is another piece of news that could dramatically affect the outcome of this group: a Scottish club, Hearts, have just named the Ugandan boss their new coach - this could spell disaster for the Ugandans.

Group 4 – Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and South Africa
Your first question about this group is probably something along the lines of, “Why is South Africa in the qualifying round?”, given that as hosts they have qualified for the World Cup already. The answer is that the African World Cup qualifying also doubles as the African Cup of Nations qualifying. If South Africa were to qualify for a place in the World Cup, the qualifying spot would simply go to next best team. This is the easiest group of all to predict, as the favoured Nigeria have won all 4 of their matches to date and already qualified for the next stage. South Africa had some poor results so far, and have been strongly criticised in the media for it; ultimately it doesn’t matter where they finish, as I don’t see the second place team from this group advancing. South Africa were coached by Carlos Alberto Parreira, who coached Brazil at the 2006 World Cup, however he resigned for family reasons and returned to Brazil. He was replaced by another Brazilian, Joel Santana. The coaching change hasn’t helped ease the struggles of the Bafana Bafana.

Group 5 – Gabon, Ghana, Lesotho, and Libya
Ghana are the favourites to advance from this group, given the star power on their roster: the likes of Chelsea midfielder Essien and new Inter Milan-signing Muntari. They have dropped a few points so far, but I still see them making it to the next stage as group winners. However, the dropped points by Ghana have made for quite an interesting battle between Ghana, Gabon and Libya. Libya have games against Ghana at home and Gabon away, while Gabon are away to Lesotho and home to Libya. I think that Ghana will win against Libya meaning that Libya will go to Gabon needing a win, which I see them getting. Libya has been playing well and they are my pick to make to the next stage as a second place team, with Gabon third and Lesotho well behind in fourth.

Group 6 – Algeria, Gambia, Liberia, and Senegal
Senegal are heavy favourites to advance from this group. After a terrific run in Korea/Japan 2002, Senegal failed to qualify for the 2006 World Cup in Germany, but the Teranga Lions will be hoping to be back in the big show this time around. Senegal has been disappointing on the road, managing only a draw at both Gambia and Liberia. While they still have to travel to Algeria, and play Gambia at home, I don’t see them dropping any points, and they should advance as group winners. As for second place, there is a good battle going on between Algeria and Gambia; even Liberia are not out of the running yet. Unfortunately for all of these teams, they are taking too many points out of each other, and I don’t see any of these teams advancing to the next stage. That said, I do see Gambia grabbing the second spot, with Algeria third and Liberia fourth.

Group 7 – Botswana, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, and Mozambique
Les Elephants of Côte d’Ivoire are the favourites in this group, with many of the top African footballers on their side, such as Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, Kolo Toure, and Didier Zakora. All of these players play their professional football in London with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham. Much like Senegal in the previous group, Côte d’Ivoire has had some disappointing results, however they seem to have found their form and will easily qualify in first place. This is another tight race for second, with all three teams still in it. Madagascar still have to travel to Côte d’Ivoire and I don’t see them getting any points there; they will likely finish last. Mozambique host Côte d’Ivoire and travel to Botswana. I see them drawing with Botswana and losing to Côte d’Ivoire; this will result in Botswana finishing in second place. However, I don’t see the Zebras (Botswana) having enough points to qualify as a second place team. Mozambique will likely finish in third and Madagascar in fourth.

Group 8 – Ethiopia, Mauritania, Morocco, and Rwanda
Morocco are the favourites to advance and I see them doing it, only I see them advancing on goal difference. That is because Rwanda has been one of the surprises of qualifying, beating Morocco 3-1 in Kigali, en route to a perfect 3-0 start before a loss in Morocco. I think that the Rwandans will keep up the pace and easily qualify as a second place team. Ethiopia has just been banned by FIFA for not solving problems within the EFF, though the EFF is trying to sort this out before the next scheduled match. I don’t see Ethiopia’s troubles affecting the outcome of the group, though. Mauritania have just had a coup, which may result in their remaining home match against Rwanda being played at a neutral venue.

Group 9 – Burkina Faso, Burundi, Seychelles, and Tunisia
Tunisia went into the group as favourites, but that has changed now, as they find themselves in second place behind a Burkina Faso team that is finally reaping the rewards of a solid performance at the 2003 Under-20 World Cup. Burkina Faso have won all of their matches including away to Tunisia. I think that they will advance out of the group with their perfect record intact. Tunisia will cruise into the next round as a second place qualifier. It should be mentioned that the Burundians have played some good football, but faced two much better teams in this group; they will grab third, with the Seychelles finishing in fourth.

Group 10 – Chad, Congo, Mali, and Sudan
Mali are the favourites from this group, and should advance as group winners - their only loss came away to Sudan. After Mali, the group is wide open - so far Chad and Sudan have only played 3 matches. Sudan also qualified for the African Cup of Nations in 2008 and is the second favourite from the group. The home and away matches against Chad are going to be highly charged battles, with the problems of Darfur hanging over them. Darfur is a region in the west of Sudan which borders Chad, and is where militias have been committing genocide, causing hundreds of thousands of people to cross the border into Chad. The Government of Chad had not being saying much publicly until the militias crossed into Chad as well. From a footballing standpoint I see these matches as two draws or possibly they trade victories. I think that Congo have enough talent to grab a win against Sudan in Sudan. This will see them in second just above Sudan. It will not be enough for the Congo to qualify, though, as I don’t see them gaining enough points to advance.

Group 11 – Swaziland, Togo, and Zambia
This was Eritrea’s group, but they withdrew just before the qualifying was to begin. Togo is the favourite, or I should say was the favourite, from this group. Togo were surprise qualifiers for Germany 2006, led by Emmanuel Adebayor, the £30 Million rated striker from Arsenal in the English Premier League. Togo will play no matches in Togo as a result of crowd violence in Lome during the last round of African Cup of Nations Qualifiers. Zambia were expected to give Togo a challenge but after the first match played at a neutral venue, in Accra, Ghana, Togo won 1-0. Then things got interesting: Zambia travelled to Swaziland, a match the Chipololo boys (Zambia) were heavily favoured to win, and it was a draw. Swaziland then followed that up with a shock 1-0 victory over Togo. Togo’s next match is against Zambia in Zambia. This is a huge match in this group. For me, Togo have been a disappointment, and I see Zambia winning the match and moving on as the winners, with Swaziland sneaking a second place spot. The Togolese will likely crash out despite their stunning qualification for the last World Cup.

Group 12 – Congo DR, Djibouti, Egypt, and Malawi
Egypt are the favourites to advance from this group, given that that they are the 2006 & 2008 African Champions. They had to come from behind to beat Congo DR in Egypt, and then suffered a shock defeat at Malawi. They now face the difficult task of travelling to Kinshasa to face Congo DR. I think that the Congolese will manage at least a draw here. If they win, the top spot is theirs, but if it is a draw, it sets up an exciting final day. Egypt are behind on goal difference by 4 and face Djibouti at home, which is a sure win, while the Simbas (Congo DR) travel to Malawi and need a win. What makes it interesting is that Djibouti have one of the leakiest defences, already allowing 23 goals, so Egypt scoring 4 or more goals is not out of the question. Weighing all of the factors, I like the DR Congo to beat Egypt at home and beat Malawi away, winning the group, while Egypt easily qualifies for the next round as a second place team.

African Summary
To summarize, I have Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Cote D’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, Zambia, DR Congo, Guinea, Angola, and Morocco advancing as group winners. Advancing with them will be the 8 best second place teams, which I foresee being Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Egypt, Tunisia, Swaziland, Libya, and Cape Verde. These teams will be drawn into five groups of four teams playing a round robin system, with the winner of each group making the World Cup. There is nothing for second place this time… ok, I lied - the African groups are also the qualifying groups for the African Cup of Nations (ACN) in Angola in 2010. The second and third place teams in each of the groups of four will also qualify for the ACN. Angola, as the hosts, are already in, so the three other teams drawn with Angola (assuming Angola progress, which I predict they will) will automatically qualify for the ACN. It would be a relief to some of the surprise teams like Swaziland, Kenya and Cape Verde to qualify automatically for the ACN, so that they are free to focus on making the World Cup.