In South America there is one large group with Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The top four teams qualify for the World Cup and the fifth place team will play off against the fourth place CONCACAF Qualifier. They have already played 6 of the 18 matches in this group, and there have been a few surprises to date. The largest has been how Brazil have struggled under Dunga: they are currently sitting in fifth place and facing criticism in the media after being beaten by a 10 man Paraguay. Paraguay have been the other surprise story in this group, as they currently sit in first place. FIFA has also repealed its ban on high altitude games, which should benefit Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, who play some or all of their home games at high altitude. This leads to a lot of home wins and away losses for these teams. I can not imagine a scenario in this group where Brazil and Argentina do not qualify… though the way Brazil are going, they could end up in fourth. Colombia have been playing well; I see them qualifying for the World Cup. For the last two spots, I see a battle between current front-runners Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela. I don’t think that Bolivia and Peru are in contention. I think that Chile has enough strength to hold off the others, and Paraguay will ride their early success to secure the playoff spot. This would set up a playoff between Cuba and Paraguay, from which I see Paraguay coming out on top.
World Cup Qualifying Round Up
To wrap up the World Cup: the only team currently qualified is South Africa, as hosts. The five other African spots will go to the winners of the five groups of four teams that have yet to be drawn. It will be exciting to see which teams are drawn together. The twenty teams that I think will be in these groups are: Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Cote D’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, Zambia, DR Congo, Guinea, Angola, Morocco, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Egypt, Tunisia, Swaziland, Libya, and Cape Verde. Europe has thirteen places up for grabs, 9 for group winners, who in my opinion will be Portugal, Israel, Czech Republic, Russia, Spain, England, France, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands. The eight best second place teams will be drawn in playoffs against each other. Here are my picks for the nine second place teams: Denmark, Greece, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Croatia, Romania, Italy and Scotland. Asia is down to two groups, and the top two teams from each advance. I think these will be Australia, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Then the two third place teams will meet in a playoff; I see this as Japan against Iran, with Japan winning. Japan would then meet the Champion of Oceania, whom I see as New Caledonia, with Japan winning again to qualify for the World Cup. With the Americas, in the North the top two teams from the three preliminary groups make the final group. I think these will be the USA, Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and El Salvador. The top three teams from this final group will then qualify for the World Cup. My prediction is Mexico, the USA, and Canada, with Cuba finishing in fourth to obtain a playoff spot against the fifth place South American team. I predict this being Paraguay, who will defeat Cuba to qualify for the World Cup. Now that you know my fifth place pick from South America, I view the top four, who all qualify automatically, as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. So there you have it: a clearer view of the World Cup qualifying, complete with the teams to watch. I hope that you enjoy the matches - I know I will!
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
CONCACAF
This brings us to the Americas - we will work our way from North to South. In CONCACAF, we see the first ever qualifying group featuring teams that have all made an appearance in the World Cup. This is group 2, the most difficult of the CONCACAF groups. There are three groups of 4, with the top two teams in each advancing to the final round, in which the top three teams will advance to the World Cup and the fourth place team will be in a playoff against a South American team.
Group 1 – Cuba, Guatemala, Trinidad & Tobago, and the United States of America
USA are heavy favourites in this group, and I see them having no problem qualifying for the next phase. After that, this group gets interesting. T & T should be the favourites, but they were very nearly eliminated in the last phase by minnows Bermuda. With star striker Kenwyne Jones currently out with a knee injury until October, they could be in tough against the other teams. T & T definitely have the quality, but have not been playing up to their potential. To make matters worse, they are up against Cuba and Guatemala in their first two matches where they are likely to still be without Jones. I think that Cuba have enough talent to make it through as a second place team, sending the Soca Warriors and Guatemala home.
Group 2 – Canada, Honduras, Jamaica, and Mexico
This is a group that should have CONCACAF officials rethinking the way that they set up qualifying groups. This group has three teams ranked higher than every team in Group 3, and three teams ranked higher than three teams in Group 1. That is because three of the top five teams in CONCACAF are all in the same group. This group is a three-way race between these teams: Mexico, Honduras, and Canada. Jamaica are certain to be the also-rans in this group. Mexico are the big favourites to advance and it would be a huge shock if they didn’t. They have brought in former England manager Sven Goran Erikson to lead the team, and as there are no quarter finals or penalties as a part of the group stage, I see Sven’s new team qualifying. This brings the fight for the second spot to Canada and Honduras. Canada need to find some consistency in their game if they are to advance. They played fantastically against Brazil in a friendly and then followed that up with a 2-2 draw against Panama, but prior to the match with Brazil, Canada had slumped to two 2-0 defeats against Estonia and South Africa. Canada need the team that gave Brazil a run for their money to show up for qualifying or it will be another failed qualifying campaign. Honduras have been impressive in their run up to this stage, except for the last match at Puerto Rico, where the Islanders held them to a 2-2 draw. These two teams need to get wins against Jamaica, and as many points as they can from Mexico, and of course from each other. In the end, I am predicting that Canada will progress to the next stage with a slim margin over Honduras, putting Jamaica in fourth.
Group 3 – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Haiti, and Suriname
This group contains the only teams to pull off an upset in the last phase: El Salvador knocked out CONCACAF’s #4 team Panama, while Suriname beat neighbours Guyana. Similar to the USA in Group 1, Costa Rica should advance without too much difficulty. That said, they had their own problems with Grenada in the last phase, but they were able to get things together for the second leg. Costa Rica will win this group. In the battle for the second spot, I don’t think that the Haitians will mount a big challenge here - for me it is down to the underdogs from the last round, El Salvador and Suriname. It could really go either way here, but I am tipping El Salvador to advance to the next stage.
CONCACAF Summary
This places the USA, Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and El Salvador in the final group. From this group I like Mexico, the USA, and Canada to grab the automatic spots for the World Cup. I think the fight for the fourth spot will be between Cuba and Costa Rica. El Salvador will be outclassed in this group. I think that Cuba might just have enough to sneak into the fourth place to play off against the South American team.
Group 1 – Cuba, Guatemala, Trinidad & Tobago, and the United States of America
USA are heavy favourites in this group, and I see them having no problem qualifying for the next phase. After that, this group gets interesting. T & T should be the favourites, but they were very nearly eliminated in the last phase by minnows Bermuda. With star striker Kenwyne Jones currently out with a knee injury until October, they could be in tough against the other teams. T & T definitely have the quality, but have not been playing up to their potential. To make matters worse, they are up against Cuba and Guatemala in their first two matches where they are likely to still be without Jones. I think that Cuba have enough talent to make it through as a second place team, sending the Soca Warriors and Guatemala home.
Group 2 – Canada, Honduras, Jamaica, and Mexico
This is a group that should have CONCACAF officials rethinking the way that they set up qualifying groups. This group has three teams ranked higher than every team in Group 3, and three teams ranked higher than three teams in Group 1. That is because three of the top five teams in CONCACAF are all in the same group. This group is a three-way race between these teams: Mexico, Honduras, and Canada. Jamaica are certain to be the also-rans in this group. Mexico are the big favourites to advance and it would be a huge shock if they didn’t. They have brought in former England manager Sven Goran Erikson to lead the team, and as there are no quarter finals or penalties as a part of the group stage, I see Sven’s new team qualifying. This brings the fight for the second spot to Canada and Honduras. Canada need to find some consistency in their game if they are to advance. They played fantastically against Brazil in a friendly and then followed that up with a 2-2 draw against Panama, but prior to the match with Brazil, Canada had slumped to two 2-0 defeats against Estonia and South Africa. Canada need the team that gave Brazil a run for their money to show up for qualifying or it will be another failed qualifying campaign. Honduras have been impressive in their run up to this stage, except for the last match at Puerto Rico, where the Islanders held them to a 2-2 draw. These two teams need to get wins against Jamaica, and as many points as they can from Mexico, and of course from each other. In the end, I am predicting that Canada will progress to the next stage with a slim margin over Honduras, putting Jamaica in fourth.
Group 3 – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Haiti, and Suriname
This group contains the only teams to pull off an upset in the last phase: El Salvador knocked out CONCACAF’s #4 team Panama, while Suriname beat neighbours Guyana. Similar to the USA in Group 1, Costa Rica should advance without too much difficulty. That said, they had their own problems with Grenada in the last phase, but they were able to get things together for the second leg. Costa Rica will win this group. In the battle for the second spot, I don’t think that the Haitians will mount a big challenge here - for me it is down to the underdogs from the last round, El Salvador and Suriname. It could really go either way here, but I am tipping El Salvador to advance to the next stage.
CONCACAF Summary
This places the USA, Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and El Salvador in the final group. From this group I like Mexico, the USA, and Canada to grab the automatic spots for the World Cup. I think the fight for the fourth spot will be between Cuba and Costa Rica. El Salvador will be outclassed in this group. I think that Cuba might just have enough to sneak into the fourth place to play off against the South American team.
Oceania
This region was dominated by Australia for a long time, so with their departure for Asia, this is a big chance for another team to have a shot at the World Cup. Oceania is down to a two team race: New Zealand and New Caledonia. New Zealand currently have a one-point lead and a game in hand (at home to Fiji) over New Caledonia. These two teams will meet in a home and home series to decide who gets to playoff against the Asian team for a spot in the World Cup. New Caledonia have to win both matches to make it, assuming that New Zealand beat Fiji and there is no reason to believe that won’t happen. I think that New Caledonia will beat New Zealand at home to set up a tense match in New Zealand in October. I am going to go with the long shot: I see the Caledonians beating the All Whites to advance to the playoff against the Asian team.
Asian champions
This brings us to Asia, the land of upsets, where the 2007 Asian champions, Iraq, have already been sent packing along with China. The focus of this final stage of Asian qualifying has to be the presence of the small nations from the Arabian Peninsula: Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. They have been playing some good football to date, and are deservedly in the last ten teams. These ten teams are divided into two groups, with the top two teams from each group qualifying for the World Cup. The two third place teams will play each other in a playoff, the winner of which will take on the Oceanic Champions for a spot in the World Cup. In case you missed it, after the last World Cup Australia joined the Asian Football Conference.
Group 1 – Australia, Bahrain, Japan, Uzbekistan, and Qatar
Japan is the top ranked team in Asia at the moment, but I am worried about them in this group. They had some disappointing results on the Arabian Gulf, losing in Bahrain and drawing in Oman. With two of their opponents from that region, Japan are going to have to find a way to get results in the Gulf if they want to make it out of this group. That is something that I don’t think the Aussies will have a problem doing; they have been playing well, though a side filled with reserves was defeated by China in the last round. I see the Aussies winning the group and making their second straight World Cup. Uzbekistan have had a strong campaign thus far, suffering only one away defeat to Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen how they will deal with teams like Japan and Australia, or how those teams will deal with travelling to Uzbekistan. I think that the fight for second place will be between the Japanese and the Uzbeks, with Qatar in 4th and Bahrain in 5th. I was impressed by the Uzbeks in the last stage and I think they have what it takes to knock Japan into third.
Group 2 – Iran, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North), Republic of Korea (South), Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea are the teams to beat in this group. It will be a big upset if North Korea or U.A.E. qualify. I think that South Korea and North Korea will draw both of the matches between them just as they did in the previous qualifying round and in most of the matches that I can recall between them. If South Korea are able to get a result from one of these games, then I see the Taeguk Warriors winning the group; if they are both draws, as I predict, then I have South Korea advancing in second place behind Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia are playing well at the moment and I see them making it back to the World Cup for the fifth time in a row. I think that Iran will draw too many matches and end up in 3rd place, setting up an exciting playoff with Japan. North Korea will finish 4th, with UAE in the last spot. Frankly, I think UAE will be lucky to get more than a few points in this group.
Asian Summary
I have Australia, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea advancing to the World Cup, with Japan and Iran competing for the playoff spot against the winners of Oceania. I think that Japan will emerge as the Asian playoff team and most likely defeat the team from Oceania, but in a playoff anything can happen.
Group 1 – Australia, Bahrain, Japan, Uzbekistan, and Qatar
Japan is the top ranked team in Asia at the moment, but I am worried about them in this group. They had some disappointing results on the Arabian Gulf, losing in Bahrain and drawing in Oman. With two of their opponents from that region, Japan are going to have to find a way to get results in the Gulf if they want to make it out of this group. That is something that I don’t think the Aussies will have a problem doing; they have been playing well, though a side filled with reserves was defeated by China in the last round. I see the Aussies winning the group and making their second straight World Cup. Uzbekistan have had a strong campaign thus far, suffering only one away defeat to Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen how they will deal with teams like Japan and Australia, or how those teams will deal with travelling to Uzbekistan. I think that the fight for second place will be between the Japanese and the Uzbeks, with Qatar in 4th and Bahrain in 5th. I was impressed by the Uzbeks in the last stage and I think they have what it takes to knock Japan into third.
Group 2 – Iran, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North), Republic of Korea (South), Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea are the teams to beat in this group. It will be a big upset if North Korea or U.A.E. qualify. I think that South Korea and North Korea will draw both of the matches between them just as they did in the previous qualifying round and in most of the matches that I can recall between them. If South Korea are able to get a result from one of these games, then I see the Taeguk Warriors winning the group; if they are both draws, as I predict, then I have South Korea advancing in second place behind Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia are playing well at the moment and I see them making it back to the World Cup for the fifth time in a row. I think that Iran will draw too many matches and end up in 3rd place, setting up an exciting playoff with Japan. North Korea will finish 4th, with UAE in the last spot. Frankly, I think UAE will be lucky to get more than a few points in this group.
Asian Summary
I have Australia, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea advancing to the World Cup, with Japan and Iran competing for the playoff spot against the winners of Oceania. I think that Japan will emerge as the Asian playoff team and most likely defeat the team from Oceania, but in a playoff anything can happen.
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